I am going to try and predict the offensive output, both yardage and points, for the 2013 football season. Before I make my prediction, I think it is important to look at the offensive output for the previous nine seasons.
|Season||Yards For||Points For|
In looking at this historical data, you can see the number of yards does not directly relate to the number of points scored. But in the seasons where the yardage was much higher, so were the number of points. Some of this differential can come because the defense is scoring points as those don’t add any yardage.
If we break down the yardage from the 2012 season, 148.7 came through the air and 211.7 came on the ground. Fans who suffered through the games know that the passing game was was one of the worst in college football and the running game was above average.
Let’s start by breaking down the running game for the 2013 season. All of the running backs have returned and they’ve added an explosive back from the 2011 season in Darrian Miller. Tony Sims was the workhorse back with an average of 113 yards in the 9 games he played. The power of last season’s running game was that the defense knew KU was not a passing threat and the offense was still able to run the ball with success.
I expect the offense to be more balanced this season and so I see a small decrease in the number of yards on the ground. My expectation is 200 yards rushing a game, with fewer rushing attempts. Having multiple backs sharing the load will mean that all of them can be fresher and therefore more successful. A side benefit is that the inevitable injuries will not kill the running game because of the depth at the position.
Last season’s failure in the air came from a quarterback hearing footsteps from previous injuries, receivers who were unable to get open and a line that was subpar at pass protection. While this year’s linemen don’t have the experience found in the trenches last season, I do expect them to be at least equal in terms of pass protection.
Moving Tony Pierson and Brandon Bourbon to a hybrid position to be utilized much more in the passing game will add two very dangerous targets who can turn a short pass into a long play. Justin McCay will finally see the field after sitting last season and not seeing the field much at Oklahoma. Christian Matthews has been moved away from being a backup quarterback and is practicing full-time as a receiver. Rodriguez Coleman, Tre’ Parmalee and Josh Ford provide additional depth.
Jimmay Mundine at Tight End will be targeted if Coach Charlie Weis is able to open the playbook as he desires. The biggest upgrade should come from the quarterback position as Jake Heaps has had a year to learn the offense and get comfortable with most of the receiving corps. He won’t be worried about previous injuries like Dayne Crist and he definitely has proven he is capable since he holds many BYU freshman passing records.
All of the upgrades in the passing game should show up with a big increase in passing yards. My prediction is 250 yards a game through the air. Combined with my rushing prediction, that will give a total of 450 yards of offense a game compared to 360.3 yards per game last season. Yes, that is a big jump!
More offense should help the offense score more points. Just as important to scoring is having a kicker capable of hitting field goals and Coach Weis had indicated his confidence in Matthew Wyman out to 50 yards and the possibility of Trevor Pardula for longer tries. I’ll predict 31 points per game which is a huge increase from the 18.2 points per game last season.
Tomorrow I’ll lay out my defensive predictions for the season and Friday I’ll predict the outcome of the three non-conference games. Are you as excited for the upcoming football season as me? What are your predictions for the offense in 2013?