Each of the Big 12 title contenders have now play 12 of their 18 conference games. This race is historic as Kansas has a chance to win their 13th Big 12 title in a row which would tie UCLA’s record from the 60s-70s. College basketball has changed drastically since the Bruin dynasty and conferences have added more members. That makes the Jayhawks run all the more unbelievable.

A simple way to win the lucky 13th title is to win the remaining six conference games. While that is possible, it would mean winning at least a couple of very tough games. We looked at the race after six games and now it is time to do it again to predict the winner.

We’ll go through each of the three contenders starting with third place West Virginia. I’ll predict the outcome of each of the remaining games to give us the final conference standings.

West Virginia (8-4)

at Kansas – LOSS
Texas Tech – WIN
Texas – WIN
at TCU – WIN
at Baylor – LOSS
Iowa State – WIN

Based on those predictions, West Virginia would finish 12-6.

Baylor (9-3)

at Texas Tech – WIN
Kansas – WIN
Oklahoma – WIN
at Iowa State – LOSS
West Virginia – WIN
at Texas – WIN

Based on these predictions, Baylor would finish 14-4.

Kansas (10-2)

West Virginia – WIN
at Baylor – LOSS
at Texas – WIN
Oklahoma – WIN
at Oklahoma State – WIN

Based on these predictions, Kansas would also finish 15-3 and win their 13th consecutive title.

In the last three weeks of games, there were some upsets that I hadn’t predicted in the last round. I didn’t expect Baylor to lose at home to Kansas State and it was a real shock that the Jayhawks lost a game in Allen Fieldhouse to Iowa State. Kansas made up a game in the standings by beating Kansas State in Manhattan.

The next two games could decide the race. Baylor plays next at Texas Tech. Lubbock spelled a loss for West Virginia and Kansas needed a last second free throw to escape with a one point victory. Meanwhile West Virginia plays at Kansas. If the Mountaineers pull the upset, they are back in the race. A loss will most likely eliminate them.

Then Kansas plays at Baylor. If form holds and the Jayhawks beat West Virginia, the conference race could be ended with a road win in Waco. Alternatively Baylor could pull ahead in the race if the Jayhawks lose to both the Mountaineers and the Bears.

Given the current standings and upcoming games, I give the Jayhawks an 85% chance of at least getting a share of the title and a 70% chance of winning it outright. That could change drastically in the next week. We’ll look at the state of the race next week to see if it is all but decided or still up for grabs.

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