Predictions for the Jayhawk Defense in 2013 Football Season

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Yesterday I posted my prediction for the Jayhawk offense during the 2013 season and today I’ll go over my thoughts on how well the Jayhawks will do in stopping their opponents offense. In the wide open Big XII, this isn’t always easy and the Jayhawks haven’t been very good at it in the past few seasons. First, let’s look at how they’ve done in the past nine seasons.

Season Yards Against Points Against
2004 334.5 21.4
2005 303.2 22.0
2006 378.1 25.5
2007 317.3 16.4
2008 396.7 28.8
2009 383.2 28.4
2010 427.7 34.4
2011 516.4 43.8
2012 481.8 36.1

As you can see from this table, the numbers have been pretty awful the last three seasons which isn’t a surprise given the record of the team. For those looking for a positive, the number of yards surrendered dropped by 35 yards when Charlie Weis and Dave Campo took over. There is also a drop of more than a touchdown per game in points against.

The breakdown of yardage in 2012 was 285.1 through the air and 196 on the ground. Reasons for the porous defense are partly because of the fast-break offenses in the Big XII wearing out the limited number of quality players fielded by the Jayhawks. It also doesn’t help when the offense doesn’t sustain long drives forcing the defense to spend more time on the field.

With a year of experience against the wild offenses of the Big XII, Dave Campo should be able to better gameplan to at least slow them down. There was also an influx of junior college players, many of whom are found on either the first or second team defense. Not only will the Jayhawks put a superior defensive team on the field, they’ll also have capable backups to step in when the starters get tired or injured. And based on yesterday’s prediction, I expect the offense to sustain more long drives.

If we look at the three major pieces of the defense, there is improvement in all three areas. One of the biggest holes in the defense last year was on the front line. Returning players have improved and the new players are pushing hard for minutes. I feel this will put a little more pressure on the quarterbacks and stop the runners a little sooner.

Linebackers are also bigger, faster, more improved and with depth. They will be able to track down the runners and better run with the receivers. Lastly is the defensive backfield that was in a tough position last season. No pressure up front left the backs giving a huge cushion on the line of scrimmage. There was also a talent deficit that left the backs unable to stop the pass. With a new scheme and a strong two deep rotation, this area will likely see the most improvement.

I think the passing game will go from the 285.1 yards a game last season to 260. On the ground, the 196 yards a game will drop to 180. That leads to more than 40 yards less a game. While I do expect a greatly improved defense, it is nearly impossible to true stop the Big XII offenses. Even this slight improvement should make a big difference.

Less yardage should also mean fewer points and I again think there will be a touchdown improvement on average. That means 29 points per game. Of course Jayhawk fans hope the defense will be even better.

What do you think the defense will do this season? Post your predictions or comments on mine!

by Sep 05, 2013

Predictions for the Jayhawk Offense in 2013 Football Season

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I am going to try and predict the offensive output, both yardage and points, for the 2013 football season. Before I make my prediction, I think it is important to look at the offensive output for the previous nine seasons.

Season Yards For Points For
2004 314.5 23.8
2005 329.7 22.4
2006 374.1 29.0
2007 479.8 42.8
2008 432.4 33.4
2009 422.4 29.4
2010 296.4 17.1
2011 326.8 22.3
2012 360.3 18.2

In looking at this historical data, you can see the number of yards does not directly relate to the number of points scored. But in the seasons where the yardage was much higher, so were the number of points. Some of this differential can come because the defense is scoring points as those don’t add any yardage.

If we break down the yardage from the 2012 season, 148.7 came through the air and 211.7 came on the ground. Fans who suffered through the games know that the passing game was was one of the worst in college football and the running game was above average.

Let’s start by breaking down the running game for the 2013 season. All of the running backs have returned and they’ve added an explosive back from the 2011 season in Darrian Miller. Tony Sims was the workhorse back with an average of 113 yards in the 9 games he played. The power of last season’s running game was that the defense knew KU was not a passing threat and the offense was still able to run the ball with success.

I expect the offense to be more balanced this season and so I see a small decrease in the number of yards on the ground. My expectation is 200 yards rushing a game, with fewer rushing attempts. Having multiple backs sharing the load will mean that all of them can be fresher and therefore more successful. A side benefit is that the inevitable injuries will not kill the running game because of the depth at the position.

Last season’s failure in the air came from a quarterback hearing footsteps from previous injuries, receivers who were unable to get open and a line that was subpar at pass protection. While this year’s linemen don’t have the experience found in the trenches last season, I do expect them to be at least equal in terms of pass protection.

Moving Tony Pierson and Brandon Bourbon to a hybrid position to be utilized much more in the passing game will add two very dangerous targets who can turn a short pass into a long play. Justin McCay will finally see the field after sitting last season and not seeing the field much at Oklahoma. Christian Matthews has been moved away from being a backup quarterback and is practicing full-time as a receiver. Rodriguez Coleman, Tre’ Parmalee and Josh Ford provide additional depth.

Jimmay Mundine at Tight End will be targeted if Coach Charlie Weis is able to open the playbook as he desires. The biggest upgrade should come from the quarterback position as Jake Heaps has had a year to learn the offense and get comfortable with most of the receiving corps. He won’t be worried about previous injuries like Dayne Crist and he definitely has proven he is capable since he holds many BYU freshman passing records.

All of the upgrades in the passing game should show up with a big increase in passing yards. My prediction is 250 yards a game through the air. Combined with my rushing prediction, that will give a total of 450 yards of offense a game compared to 360.3 yards per game last season. Yes, that is a big jump!

More offense should help the offense score more points. Just as important to scoring is having a kicker capable of hitting field goals and Coach Weis had indicated his confidence in Matthew Wyman out to 50 yards and the possibility of Trevor Pardula for longer tries. I’ll predict 31 points per game which is a huge increase from the 18.2 points per game last season.

Tomorrow I’ll lay out my defensive predictions for the season and Friday I’ll predict the outcome of the three non-conference games. Are you as excited for the upcoming football season as me? What are your predictions for the offense in 2013?

by Sep 04, 2013

My 2011 Predictions for Jayhawk Football

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The 2010 season was a very tough one for Turner Gill and the Kansas Jayhawks. Opening with a loss to North Dakota State provided a horrible start to the season. Blowouts in early Big XII games were just as painful. High notes included a win over then-ranked Georgia Tech and an amazing comeback against Colorado. Games at the end of the conference season weren’t as ugly as the early conference blowouts.

Another offseason has passed. Some players left the program and new players arrived. Many of the injured players from last season are back and ready to go. So how will the Jayhawks fare this season? I’ll give my projections for each of the games and we can look back in a few months to see if I was close.

Game 1 – McNeese State in Lawrence: This game brings the same danger as North Dakota State a year ago. In fact, the Cowboys are a better team. All the frustration of losing the opener last season will be unleashed by the Jayhawks and they’ll start the new campaign with a win. Record 1-0

Game 2 – Northern Illinois in Lawrence: Northern Illinois had a great 2010 and will most likely be favored in this game. Yet they have a new coach and will still be adjusting to the new systems. I expect this game to be close, but feel the Jayhawks will find a way to win. Record 2-0

Game 3 – Georgia Tech in Atlanta: After losing the opener and looking awful, nobody expect the Jayhawks to even keep the game close with Georgia Tech last year. Sure, it was close and Kansas led almost the entire game. Georgia Tech isn’t as talented as last year and the Jayhawks are a better team. Unfortunately I think revenge combined with a road game will give the win to Georgia Tech. Record 2-1

Game 4 – Texas Tech in Lawrence: The last time that Texas Tech came to Lawrence was an ugly blowout. Very few of the current players were around back then so they may not remember it. Hopefully they will remember the early season success and will have taken the bye week to fix any flaws from the first three weeks. Texas Tech has dropped off considerably since their last visit and I think the Jayhawks will find a way to win this one. Record 3-1

Game 5 – Oklahoma State in Stillwater: Oklahoma State features one of the most powerful offenses in the country. While improved on defense, the Jayhawks are no match for such a powerful offense. Unfortunately I don’t think this one will be close and the Pokes will come out on top. Record 3-2

Game 6 – Oklahoma in Lawrence: Oklahoma is the top-rated team going into the season. Pundits say they have the best offense in the country. I’d love to see a massive home upset of Oklahoma like in 1984, but I don’t see it happening. Oklahoma wins this one easily. Record 3-3

Game 7 – Kansas State in Lawrence: After two tough weeks, Kansas State comes to Lawrence for the second year in a row. The last meeting featured a Wildcat blowout. This one will be much closer and I think the Jayhawks will find a way to get revenge. Record 4-3

Game 8 – Texas in Austin: Texas had a really bad season last year and yet they still did better than the Jayhawks. Both teams are improved this season and have the desire to show improvement. Unfortunately this game is in Austin and I think the Horns will win this one. Record 4-4

Game 9 – Iowa State in Ames: Many feel that Kansas and Iowa State will be fighting for the Big XII basement. Iowa State isn’t as good as last season having lost their quarterback. Kansas finds a way to win a road game in the conference. Record 5-4

Game 10 – Baylor in Lawrence: This game was an early blowout last season in Waco. I’m sure the Jayhawks will again have revenge on their mind. I think this game will be a lot closer than last season, but I have Baylor getting the win. Record 5-5

Game 11 – Texas A&M in College Station: Most likely this will be the last trip the Jayhawks make to College Station and it would be great to come away with a win. They faced the same situation going to Lincoln last year and kept the game close. But like last year, the home team will prevail. Record 5-6

Game 12 – Missouri in Kansas City: They don’t call this a Border War for nothing. As a rivalry game, you can’t always go by the teams records. I think Missouri will already be bowl eligible and hoping to get into a better bowl. The Jayhawks need the win to become bowl eligible and prove the doubters wrong. I don’t think the game will come down to something as dramatic as Reesing to Meyer, but I do think the Jayhawks find a way to win. Record 6-6

Now that I’ve let my prognostication be known, it is time for the games to be played. We’ll see how many of the games I got right. What do you think? Post a comment with your own predictions.

by Sep 02, 2011

Will the Jayhawks Get Caught in the Spider’s Web?

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Most observers will look at the #1 seeded Jayhawks and the #12 seeded Richmond Spiders and assume that this will be an easy win for the Jayhawks. There are also those who feel the Jayhawks may overlook the Spiders and be ripe for an upset. Either of those scenarios is certainly possible.

On paper, the Jayhawks have more talent. When it comes to the tournament, the team with the most talent doesn’t always win. The real key is getting that talent to focus on the task at hand and play well as a team. Of course, the underdog can also feel empowered and play well above their talent level would indicate.

Jayhawk fans know all too well about the unexpected loss to Northern Iowa in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. UNI was a veteran team that played a great game. The Jayhawks also seemed to take the game for granted which led to a flat performance. As most of the key performers played in the UNI game, they should realize that no team can be taken for granted at this point of the season.

There is another factor that may give the Jayhawks inspiration and it came before any of them put on a Kansas uniform. Richmond has played one previous game against Kansas and it was in 2004 at Allen Fieldhouse. They were a huge underdog and walked out of the Phog with a win. The Spiders played an amazing game that night and the Jayhawk players most likely overlooked them.

Bill Self has been at Kansas for eight seasons and has only lost seven home games. Most of the players on the current team experienced their only home loss this season when the Texas Longhorns came to Lawrence. The Jayhawks were exhausted that day after Thomas Robinson’s mom had died the evening before. When they met Texas again in the Big XII Tournament, the team was fired up for revenge.

With the loss to UNI in 2010 and the knowledge of Richmond winning at Allen Fieldhouse, the Jayhawks should have some revenge and redemption on their minds when they take the court Friday evening. While I expect Richmond to be a tough out, I think the Jayhawks will have enough fire to stomp out the Spiders and advance to the Elite Eight.

by Mar 23, 2011

Halloween in Lubbock Could Be Scary

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Did I really take a one month hiatus from the blog? Wow, I knew that I had been busy, but didn’t realize it had been that long. First let’s recap the four games that passed and then we’ll talk about the Jayhawks visiting Lubbock on Halloween.

Southern Mississippi put a real scare into the Jayhawks and if it weren’t for the defense locking down in the fourth quarter, this would have been a loss. Unfortunately the poor defense in the first three quarters provided a glimpse of what would come in the next few games.

If the Southern Miss game was scary, the Iowa State game was an absolute nightmare. Luckily a pass at the end of the game was just a tad long and the Jayhawks survived their first Big XII game. Once again the defense was absolutely awful and it took a lot of offense success to survive.

The bad defense caught up with the Jayhawks in Boulder. Thanks to several turnovers in the first half, the Jayhawks found themselves in a three touchdown hole. The offense stormed back in the second half to take the lead, but the defense was still leaky. There were two drives in the last few minutes that could have given the Jayhawks the lead for good, but it just didn’t happen. A game that everyone expected Kansas to win had turned into an ugly loss.

Returning home to Lawrence to play Oklahoma didn’t seem as bad as it had at the beginning of the season. Oklahoma was a lowly 3-3 and would be without their most potent offensive weapons. Once again the Jayhawks offense sputtered and wheezed early in the game. Three Reesing interceptions gave the Sooners a nice halftime lead. Strangely enough it was the defense that kept KU in the game. The offense came alive in the second half and unfortunately the defense was wearing down. When all was said and done, the Jayhawks were on the bad side of an ugly game.

We are now more than halfway through the regular season with the Jayhawks record at 5-2 overall and 1-2 in the Big XII. Teams that were expected to do well in the Big XII North are doing poorly with Nebraska joining Kansas at 1-2 and Missouri at 0-3. A Kansas State team that was absolutely awful at the beginning of the season sits on top of the North standings with a 3-1 record.

The Jayhawks travel to Lubbock, Texas to play the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Halloween. Many of the Tech players seem to dress for Halloween every week so I can only imagine what it will look like on the field tomorrow. It is hard to predict which teams will show up on the field. Will it be the Texas Tech team that demolished Nebraska in Lincoln or the one that got demolished at home by Texas A&M? Which Jayhawk offense will be on the field? The one that ran up and down the field on Iowa State or the one that turned it over against Oklahoma? And if the Jayhawk offense shows up, what about the defense?

I do believe the Jayhawks offense will play much better in this game. More emphasis will be placed on running the ball which Texas A&M showed could be quite effective against the Red Raiders. In fact, KU ran like crazy in the first few games of the season. Once the running game gets going, the ball can start flying as Reesing will have more time to throw. There is no doubt in my mind that the Jayhawk offense will put up enough points to win this game.

Texas Tech has the top offense in the NCAA. Yet they will be starting their third string quarterback. Last year the Red Raiders offensive line rarely gave up a sack and this year they have given up many. The KU defense should be able to put some pressure on the quarterback. I am also hopeful that the coaches have instilled a little more aggressiveness into the defense. If they can get a few stops and a couple of turnovers, the Jayhawks have a good shot at leaving town with a win.

Oddsmakers give the Red Raiders a 6.5 point advantage in this contest and that sounds about right on paper. Before the season started, this game looked really tough. Remember that Texas Tech came to Lawrence last season and won 63-21 That was the low point in the Jayhawks season and I think the upperclassmen will remember it well as they prepare for this game. I think the Jayhawks can pull the upset this week. My prediction is 42-38 for the Jayhawks.

by Oct 30, 2009

KU vs Southern Mississippi Preview and Prediction

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After a wild week on the Jayhawk campus, I’m sure all players, coaches and fans will be glad to have a game taking place. There is no doubt that Southern Mississippi is the toughest opponent the Jayhawks have faced this season. Various national media have put the Jayhawks on upset alert this week. The fear is that the on campus shenanigans and the tough opponent will combine to catch the Jayhawks off guard.

If Southern Mississippi wins this game, it will be because they play the better game. I have no doubt that the coaching staff will have the players focused on the game and they will be well aware that the Eagles are a very tough opponent. If anything, I think the off field activities will have the team even more fired up to show everyone that they are a top notch team deserving of accolades.

A pleasant surprise for the Jayhawks this season is the potency of their running game. Coach Mangino is pleased, but also attributes this is part to the opposing teams being focused on shutting down the passing game. Southern Mississippi has shown in their first three games that they can shut down an opponent’s running game. Jake Sharp is considered a game time decision for the Jayhawks and he could be a deciding factor in who wins this battle. My guess is that Sharp will get a few carries, but he won’t get a heavy workload so that he doesn’t cause further damage to his calf injury. It is doubtful the Jayhawks will put up the running numbers from the first three games, though I think they will mix in enough runs to keep the Southern Miss defense guessing.

Where I expect the Jayhawks to focus the most is the passing game. They haven’t shown as much as expected in the first three games and this game seems the obvious situation to air the ball out. They have three high-quality receivers in Johnathan Wilson, Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. Throw in Bradley McDougald, the true freshman, and there is no way that any defense can stop all four of them. In fact, it is dropsies that has stopped them the most so far. My only question is whether Dezmon Briscoe will be playing. Coach Mangino has not announced any suspensions, but it was reported that Briscoe was involved in some way in the scuffles this week. Regardless, I think the Jayhawks will do a good job moving the ball through the air. The Eagles did record six sacks against Virginia last week so it is imperative the line does a good job blocking and Reesing gets rid of the ball quickly.

Southern Miss is good at moving the ball on the ground. To date, the Jayhawks have done a good job of stopping the run. Again, something has to give. I think the Jayhawks will give up some yards on the ground, though the Eagles will be held below their season average. Last week the Eagles had a couple of big runs and KU has given up some big plays to UTEP and Duke. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles get a long run at some point in the game. That could even come from the Wildcat (or Wild Eagle) formation that has become so popular. UTEP used it on a couple of plays and gained positive yardage. The Jayhawks will be looking for it, though they could get caught off guard since they haven’t seen it much this season.

While I think the Eagles will have some success on the ground, it will be their passing game that will determine if they score enough points to win. Austin Davis has been proven to be a good quarterback. Last week the Jayhawks gave up a big slant pass to Duke on their first offensive play. Just like the run defense, the pass defense needs to focus on not giving up the big play. I think the Jayhawks will at least keep the Eagles in check on their passing game.

I don’t think we’ll see a defensive slugfest this week. The defense that provides the most stops will be the difference. I think the Jayhawks offensive firepower gives them the edge and I’ll predict the Jayhawks win 38-21.

by Sep 25, 2009

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