Final Third of Big 12 Race to Lucky 13 Jayhawk Titles

Final Third of Big 12 Race to Lucky 13 Jayhawk Titles

basketball

Each of the Big 12 title contenders have now play 12 of their 18 conference games. This race is historic as Kansas has a chance to win their 13th Big 12 title in a row which would tie UCLA’s record from the 60s-70s. College basketball has changed drastically since the Bruin dynasty and conferences have added more members. That makes the Jayhawks run all the more unbelievable.

A simple way to win the lucky 13th title is to win the remaining six conference games. While that is possible, it would mean winning at least a couple of very tough games. We looked at the race after six games and now it is time to do it again to predict the winner.

We’ll go through each of the three contenders starting with third place West Virginia. I’ll predict the outcome of each of the remaining games to give us the final conference standings.

West Virginia (8-4)

at Kansas – LOSS
Texas Tech – WIN
Texas – WIN
at TCU – WIN
at Baylor – LOSS
Iowa State – WIN

Based on those predictions, West Virginia would finish 12-6.

Baylor (9-3)

at Texas Tech – WIN
Kansas – WIN
Oklahoma – WIN
at Iowa State – LOSS
West Virginia – WIN
at Texas – WIN

Based on these predictions, Baylor would finish 14-4.

Kansas (10-2)

West Virginia – WIN
at Baylor – LOSS
TCU – WIN
at Texas – WIN
Oklahoma – WIN
at Oklahoma State – WIN

Based on these predictions, Kansas would also finish 15-3 and win their 13th consecutive title.

In the last three weeks of games, there were some upsets that I hadn’t predicted in the last round. I didn’t expect Baylor to lose at home to Kansas State and it was a real shock that the Jayhawks lost a game in Allen Fieldhouse to Iowa State. Kansas made up a game in the standings by beating Kansas State in Manhattan.

The next two games could decide the race. Baylor plays next at Texas Tech. Lubbock spelled a loss for West Virginia and Kansas needed a last second free throw to escape with a one point victory. Meanwhile West Virginia plays at Kansas. If the Mountaineers pull the upset, they are back in the race. A loss will most likely eliminate them.

Then Kansas plays at Baylor. If form holds and the Jayhawks beat West Virginia, the conference race could be ended with a road win in Waco. Alternatively Baylor could pull ahead in the race if the Jayhawks lose to both the Mountaineers and the Bears.

Given the current standings and upcoming games, I give the Jayhawks an 85% chance of at least getting a share of the title and a 70% chance of winning it outright. That could change drastically in the next week. We’ll look at the state of the race next week to see if it is all but decided or still up for grabs.

by Feb 13, 2017
Predicting the Jayhawks Chance at Lucky 13 Big 12 Titles

Predicting the Jayhawks Chance at Lucky 13 Big 12 Titles

basketball

All teams in the Big 12 have played 6 of their 18 conference basketball games and three teams have separated themselves in the standings. Note that there are four more teams with 3-3 records that would have a chance to win the title if they were to win out. While possible, that is highly unlikely. Let’s look at the remaining schedules for each of the three contenders and take a guess at the Jayhawks chance of winning their 13th consecutive Big 12 title.

I’ve listed each of the schedules in reverse order, so we’ll start with West Virginia who are currently in third place. Just looking at their remaining schedule, I’ll predict a win or a less to come up with a predicted final conference record.

West Virginia (4-2)

at Kansas State – LOSS
Kansas – WIN
at Iowa State – LOSS
Oklahoma State – WIN
at Oklahoma – WIN
Kansas State – WIN
at Kansas – LOSS
Texas Tech – WIN
Texas – WIN
at TCU – WIN
at Baylor – LOSS
Iowa State – WIN

Based on those predictions, West Virginia would finish 12-6.

Baylor (5-1)

at TCU – WIN
Texas Tech – WIN
at Kansas – LOSS
Kansas State – WIN
at Oklahoma State – WIN
TCU – WIN
at Texas Tech – WIN
Kansas – WIN
Oklahoma – WIN
at Iowa State – LOSS
West Virginia – WIN
at Texas – WIN

Based on these predictions, Baylor would finish 15-3.

Kansas (6-0)

Texas – WIN
at West Virginia – LOSS
Baylor – WIN
Iowa State – WIN
at Kansas State – LOSS
at Texas Tech – WIN
West Virginia – WIN
at Baylor – LOSS
TCU – WIN
at Texas – WIN
Oklahoma – WIN
at Oklahoma State – WIN

Based on these predictions, Kansas would also finish 15-3 and tie Baylor for the title.

As I went through my predictions, I didn’t throw in any real upsets. Will the Jayhawks truly lose at both West Virginia and Baylor? Will they truly have another perfect season in Allen Fieldhouse? Baylor has been known to regress in previous seasons, will that happen again? If any of that changes, so could the race.

Right now I’d guess Kansas has at least an 80% chance of at least sharing the title to give them 13 straight. The next game for Baylor is at TCU and the Horned Frogs are much improved this season. Should the Bears lose that one, the race could be over sooner rather than later.

I’ll revisit the race when all of the teams have played 12 of the 18 games and we’ll re-evaluate where they all stand.

by Jan 19, 2017
KU vs. Memphis Preview and Prediction

KU vs. Memphis Preview and Prediction

football

As Jayhawk fans, we all wanted to believe the resounding win in the opener against Rhode Island would carry over against Ohio. Alas, neither the offense or defense did anything positive in the first half. The only good moment was a special teams punt return touchdown. While the second half was better, the hole was already too deep.

Now it is time for the first road game of the season. The last road win was on September 12, 2009 in the West Texas town of El Paso. That’s more than seven years of road losses and probably too many shots of tequila to numb the pain! While a road win would be a huge boost for this team, it may not happen this season.

Memphis whipped the Jayhawks handily last season in Lawrence. KU has improved since that game and the Tigers are without the head coach and first round draft choice quarterback they had in last season’s game. But will these trends be good enough for a road win?

After the debacle of a first half last week, I do expect a better start this week. We might even see the teams trading scores early. Will there be three turnovers by special teams again? I’d say that is highly unlikely.

The defensive line was at full strength and got gashed last week for a lot of big runs up the middle. I expect the coaches will clean that up a bit, but I still see Memphis grinding out yards on the ground. The best hope is to see the Tigers throwing the ball to test the Kansas corners. KU may not be able to stop them, but it does open the door for a possible game-changing turnover.

Just like the defensive line, their counterparts on offense were equally ineffective. Pass-blocking was mostly good, but there was no running game at all. These guys are young and that could lead to bigger improvements from week to week. I just don’t think it will be a big enough jump to let the running backs do much.

Our friends in Las Vegas see Kansas as a nearly three touchdown underdog. I’m going to hope the coaches can clean up the mistakes so the Jayhawks can stay in this game longer. But my prediction still spells another road loss with Memphis 42 Kansas 31. Uno mas tequila, por favor!

by Sep 16, 2016
KU vs. Ohio Preview and Prediction

KU vs. Ohio Preview and Prediction

football

After a long wait, the Jayhawk football team got back in the winning column. Before I get to this week’s game, let’s take a look back at the six things I was watching in the opener against Rhode Island.

Quarterbacks: Overall they did well with only one bad mistake. None of the quarterbacks separated themselves and so we’ll likely continue to see a shuffling between Cozart and Willis. Offensive Line: Two freshmen were among the starting five and the line did a good job. This will get tougher so hopefully they can continue to keep the quarterbacks upright and the backs running forward. Receivers: They did very well and one more weapon should play this week. Defensive Line: They didn’t play as well as I’d like, but two starters were unavailable. I hope we’ll see some improvement this week. Edge Defense: The defensive backs also got off to a good start considering their youth. They need to improve for Big 12 play. Special Teams: Kickoffs and punts went well. Placekicking still has a lot of room for improvement.

I was afraid my prediction for game one might be a little too optimistic and yet both the offense did better (points-wise) than I predicted. As a Jayhawk fan, I can only hope they continue to beat my predictions.

Think back to the Nebraska teams of old and you have a pretty good idea of the type of football you’ll see from Ohio. They may not have the talent from Nebraska teams of old, but they have similar offensive and defensive philosophies. Of course that is probably because their head coach, Frank Solich, is the former Cornhusker coach.

Ohio is going to want to run the ball with a more limited passing game. This makes the Jayhawk defensive line very important. Adding D.J. Williams and Marcquis Roberts should give the defense a little more firepower to plug up the holes and limit the Bobcats’ running game. Keep the drives short so that players don’t get worn down and it could be a banner day for the Jayhawks.

On offense, Jeremiah Booker will likely be added to the weapons at receiver. Extra available bodies on the line will help open holes and give the quarterbacks extra time to hit an open receiver. I don’t expect them to score as much as in the first game, but I do expect they’ll have success.

There were only four flags on the Jayhawks in the first game, but two of those four were very frustrating. Getting penalized on the first play of the game for delay of game is just unbelievable. Players had the entire offseason to be prepared for that play. Near the end of the first half, two timeouts were called to get the perfect fourth and one play. Then twelve men on the field move the ball back and a missed field goal followed. I do expect silly penalties like this will be cleaned up going forward.

Prediction: As the week started, the Jayhawks were nine point underdogs. A day later and the Jayhawks were favored by three. When a line moves like that, it is because money was being bet on the Jayhawks. Are the gamblers smart or are biased fans throwing away money? I’m once again going to predict the Jayhawks are going to beat the line. I’ll say Kansas 38 – Ohio 31.

by Sep 09, 2016
KU vs. Rhode Island Preview and Prediction

KU vs. Rhode Island Preview and Prediction

football

Jayhawk football fans haven’t had much to celebrate in a long time. The 2015 season was painful as there wasn’t a single win. There hasn’t been a reason to celebrate since November 8, 2014. All of that leads to the first game of the 2016 season against the Rhode Island Rams. Their results over the past few years are as bad as the Jayhawks and they play in the lower FCS subdivision.

What does that mean for the outcome against the Rams? According to the betting line, Kansas is favored by 29 points. Barring something crazy happening, Jayhawk fans should have reason to celebrate when the final whistle blows. In fact, they should have reasons to celebrate throughout the game.

I have six things I’ll be watching:

ONE: Quarterbacks. We still don’t know who will be starting the game. If I had to guess, it will be Ryan Willis. No matter how he plays, I fully expect to see Montell Cozart take snaps before halftime. Should Cozart start, then Willis will also receive first half snaps. The coaches want to see how each of them perform in a real game so they can determine the best option for the rest of the games on the schedule. I also expect Carter Stanley to lead a drive or two so that he can get a taste of college football in case he is needed later in the season.

I hope they are decisive, their throws are accurate, they mix in some runs and they don’t turn it over. If the Air Raid offense is going to succeed, the offense has to move fast and drives must be sustained. Against an overmatched opponent, they need to put up a lot of points to build confidence.

TWO: Offensive Line. If they can’t keep the quarterback protected in this game, it’s gonna be another really long season. Ideally, I don’t want to see a KU quarterback sacked. I want to see the offensive line get a push with holes opened up for the running backs. Not only does each lineman need to do his own job, they need to work together.

THREE: Receivers. I’m confident the running backs will have some run success. It seems more important that they are able to catch the ball in open space. That includes catching balls that aren’t thrown perfectly. Make those tough catches to keep the quarterback confident.

In the Air Raid offense, a number of receivers will be used in the slot and on the edges. The ball needs to be thrown to all areas of the field, inside and out, long and short. It would be great to see a receiver like LaQuvionte Gonzalez have a breakout game. But I’d love to see the catches spread among a number of receivers so the defense can’t be focused on just one weapon.

FOUR: Defensive Line. If the line can’t pressure the offense, it makes a tough day for the entire defense. That is especially true with all of the high powered offenses in the Big 12. We’ve heard about the increased size in the middle and the speed on the edge. Now we need to see the Rams quarterback on the ground a few times and the running game stuffed. If they can’t overpower the Rams, this maybe the only win of the season as the opponents will only get tougher.

FIVE: Edge Defense. Just like with the running backs, I feel comfortable with the defense in the middle of the field if the line is doing their job. I’m most concerned with the corners shutting down the receivers. As Jayhawk fans we are all too familiar with watching the opponent’s receivers dominating the corners. Lock down the receivers in this game and build confidence for the conference games.

SIX: Special Teams. There has been nothing more frustrating than watching the kicking game the past few seasons. The “gimme” extra points weren’t a given. Going for it on fourth down often seemed the better option than trying most any field goal. And given the inept offense in past seasons, the punter became one of the most important players on the team.

Ideally there will be no field goal attempts because the offense gets touchdowns. Yet it might not be the end of the world if there are at least a couple of field goal opportunities that get converted. Kickers need to see the ball go through the uprights! Yes, so do fans!!!

Prediction: The guys in Las Vegas are pretty smart and their predictions are right more often than not. I think the built-up frustration of last season will help the entire team to come out firing in this game. So I’m predicting the Jayhawks will not only win, but cover the 29 point spread. I’ll say Kansas 52 – Rhode Island 13.

by Sep 02, 2016

Predicting the Jayhawks 2013 Non-Conference Football Games

football

2013-non-con-logosIt was weird to watch the college football season kick off while the Jayhawks started with a bye. This gave them the opportunity to do a little extra scouting on their upcoming opponents and gave me a little more information to help with my prognostication.

Nobody really seems to know what the Jayhawks will put on the field this season, though I tried to predict their offensive and defensive numbers for the season. Now I’m gonna to make predictions on the outcome of the three non-conference games. There is another bye after these games and I’ll use that week to predict the rest of the season. Hopefully we’ll all know more about the Jayhawks by then.

First up are the University of South Dakota Coyotes. They are an FCS team from the Missouri Valley Conference and their 2012 season was every bit as miserable as the Jayhawks with a 1-10 record. In their first game of 2013, they opened with a 10-7 victory over UC Davis. Of South Dakota’s 286 yards, 195 of them came on the ground. Defensively they held UC Davis to 267 yards. It should be noted that UC Davis is also an FCS team so their offense and defense are not the same as that of a Big XII team, even a team as bad as the Jayhawks last season.

It is important for the Jayhawks to have some success in the passing game early so I expect the offense to lean heavily on Jake Heaps arm early. Once they have success in the air, the running game will take over. This is a game the Jayhawks need to win big to build confidence and I believe they will do just that. I’m going to go with a 42-10 Jayhawk victory.

Rice started the Jayhawks 11-game losing streak with a 25-24 win in the 2nd game last season. In the Owls’ first game of 2013, they played against Texas A&M and put up more than 500 yards of offense. To me, there is at least a small asterisk to those numbers as half of the A&M defensive starters were suspended for the game. Even with that asterisk, this is an offense that can move the ball and score. If there was a negative, their QB McHarque threw two interceptions.

Many Jayhawk fans have circled this game as a win would be a huge confidence boost. Remember, the Jayhawks last won a road game four years ago and that streak needs to be broken. I just don’t have a good feeling about this game. While KU will keep the game close, I have the Owls winning 42-38.

Louisiana Tech last visited Lawrence in the 2nd week of the 2008 season and got shut out 29-0. We need to remember they played a team coming off of a miracle season capped off by an Orange Bowl win. Last season they finished 9-3 including a win in their bowl game. In their first game of 2013, they went to North Carolina State and lost 40-14.

I expect the Jayhawks offense to have good success both in the air and on the ground against the Bulldogs. This could be a breakout game for the defense as they will come out angry after the Rice game and force some turnovers including at least one they will take into the endzone. I’ll take the Jayhawks 45-17 in this one.

If I’m on the mark, the Jayhawks will finish the non-conference season 2-1. Let’s look at the bright side as that would be double the number of wins they had last season. Should they prove me wrong and get a win against Rice, Jayhawk fans will have good reason for optimism after the last three seasons of miserable football.

by Sep 06, 2013

Pin It on Pinterest