Predicting the Jayhawks 2017 Football Season

Predicting the Jayhawks 2017 Football Season

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The last several years have been very frustrating and even depressing for Jayhawk football fans. It is time for a new season to kick off and I’m going to put on my prognosticator’s hat. Just like anyone else, I can only make a guess as to the results of the twelve games on the schedule.

Overall, we think we have some answers on this season’s team. Most position groups seem to be better than they were last season. The one exception is with the defensive backs as they have very little experience. After many years of an inept offense, things should be better this season. More time of possession is good because the offense is moving the ball, but it is also gives the defense more rest. Now let’s look at my predictions.

Southeast Missouri State

In many ways, the first game is a way to work out the kinks against a live opponent. If this game isn’t a blowout, it could be another very long season. I expect it will be a blowout and it will provide good experience for new players on the roster.

Record: 1-0

Central Michigan

Central Michigan already played a game this season and it was against the Jayhawks’ opening opponent from last season. The Chippewas had to go to three overtimes to beat Rhode Island 30-27 at home. I would have expect a much easier win. They get an extra couple of days rest before coming to Lawrence in Week 2, but I don’t think that will be a huge help. Originally I felt this game could be close, but now I’m thinking it will be another comfortable Jayhawk win.

Record: 2-0

Ohio

After the first couple of games, the schedule gets tougher. Last season Ohio came to Lawrence and beat the Jayhawks 37-21. This year the game is in Ohio and Jayhawk fans are well aware that Kansas has a win on the road since early in the 2009 season against UTEP. This is their best chance to break the streak and I think they’ll have enough confidence to finally get it done.

Record: 3-0

West Virginia

With the non-conference season complete, it is time for Big 12 foes and West Virginia is ranked to start the season. I have a feeling that this game may be closer than expected, but I just can’t see it being a win.

Record: 3-1

Texas Tech

With Patrick Mahomes gone to the NFL, the Red Raiders offense won’t be as good as last year. Traditionally the defense hasn’t been very good. Combine that with an improved Jayhawks team and a game in Lawrence and I’ve got this one as a win.

Record: 4-1

Iowa State

Iowa State is projected to be near the bottom of the Big 12 again and this is always a game Kansas fans circle as winnable. Unfortunately the results have been losses in most recent seasons. It is on the road in Ames and I’ve already mentioned the challenge for the past eight seasons at winning a road game. All that said, this is a new team and I think a win is gonna happen.

Record: 5-1

TCU

Just one more win and the Jayhawks are bowl eligible. TCU has gotten a scare from Kansas the last few seasons including a 24-23 squeaker last season in Lawrence. This year the game is in Fort Worth and I think the Horned Frogs are too strong to let this one slip away.

Record: 5-2

Kansas State

A rivalry game just before Halloween. Could it be Bill Snyder’s last game against the Jayhawks? Memorial Stadium should be rocking and I think it could be a really good game. Sadly I think the Wildcats will win again.

Record: 5-3

Baylor

With all the problems at Baylor, the Bears are not nearly as good as some of the recent seasons and this game is in Lawrence. While it could be an upset special, I think the Jayhawks will come up short.

Record: 5-4

Texas

The Jayhawks have not beat Texas since 1938. Oh wait, they stunned the Longhorns last season in an overtime game in Lawrence. Think the guys in burnt orange will be out for revenge? You bet! With the game in Austin, I just don’t see any way the Jayhawks can pull off another upset this season.

Record: 5-5

Oklahoma

Oklahoma is expected to challenge for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Yes, the game is in Lawrence and it is possible the Jayhawks will keep it close early. In the end, I expect the score to be lopsided in favor of the Sooners.

Record 5-6

Oklahoma State

Based on my predictions, the season started so well and the Jayhawks are still one win away from being bowl eligible. Unfortunately they face a really good Cowboys team in Stillwater to close out the season. In college football, most anything is possible. This just looks like the last game of the season for the Jayhawks.

Record: 5-7

Wrap Up

It is hard to imagine any fan being upset with a 5-7 record after the last decade of futility. If things play out as in my predictions, losing the last six games would certainly be frustrating. Maybe there is another upset win in there that would bring a bowl invite. Of course there is also the chance I’m being too optimistic. Leave a comment and let me know your thoughts on the season.

by Sep 1, 2017
KU vs. Memphis Preview and Prediction

KU vs. Memphis Preview and Prediction

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As Jayhawk fans, we all wanted to believe the resounding win in the opener against Rhode Island would carry over against Ohio. Alas, neither the offense or defense did anything positive in the first half. The only good moment was a special teams punt return touchdown. While the second half was better, the hole was already too deep.

Now it is time for the first road game of the season. The last road win was on September 12, 2009 in the West Texas town of El Paso. That’s more than seven years of road losses and probably too many shots of tequila to numb the pain! While a road win would be a huge boost for this team, it may not happen this season.

Memphis whipped the Jayhawks handily last season in Lawrence. KU has improved since that game and the Tigers are without the head coach and first round draft choice quarterback they had in last season’s game. But will these trends be good enough for a road win?

After the debacle of a first half last week, I do expect a better start this week. We might even see the teams trading scores early. Will there be three turnovers by special teams again? I’d say that is highly unlikely.

The defensive line was at full strength and got gashed last week for a lot of big runs up the middle. I expect the coaches will clean that up a bit, but I still see Memphis grinding out yards on the ground. The best hope is to see the Tigers throwing the ball to test the Kansas corners. KU may not be able to stop them, but it does open the door for a possible game-changing turnover.

Just like the defensive line, their counterparts on offense were equally ineffective. Pass-blocking was mostly good, but there was no running game at all. These guys are young and that could lead to bigger improvements from week to week. I just don’t think it will be a big enough jump to let the running backs do much.

Our friends in Las Vegas see Kansas as a nearly three touchdown underdog. I’m going to hope the coaches can clean up the mistakes so the Jayhawks can stay in this game longer. But my prediction still spells another road loss with Memphis 42 Kansas 31. Uno mas tequila, por favor!

by Sep 16, 2016
KU vs. Ohio Preview and Prediction

KU vs. Ohio Preview and Prediction

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After a long wait, the Jayhawk football team got back in the winning column. Before I get to this week’s game, let’s take a look back at the six things I was watching in the opener against Rhode Island.

Quarterbacks: Overall they did well with only one bad mistake. None of the quarterbacks separated themselves and so we’ll likely continue to see a shuffling between Cozart and Willis. Offensive Line: Two freshmen were among the starting five and the line did a good job. This will get tougher so hopefully they can continue to keep the quarterbacks upright and the backs running forward. Receivers: They did very well and one more weapon should play this week. Defensive Line: They didn’t play as well as I’d like, but two starters were unavailable. I hope we’ll see some improvement this week. Edge Defense: The defensive backs also got off to a good start considering their youth. They need to improve for Big 12 play. Special Teams: Kickoffs and punts went well. Placekicking still has a lot of room for improvement.

I was afraid my prediction for game one might be a little too optimistic and yet both the offense did better (points-wise) than I predicted. As a Jayhawk fan, I can only hope they continue to beat my predictions.

Think back to the Nebraska teams of old and you have a pretty good idea of the type of football you’ll see from Ohio. They may not have the talent from Nebraska teams of old, but they have similar offensive and defensive philosophies. Of course that is probably because their head coach, Frank Solich, is the former Cornhusker coach.

Ohio is going to want to run the ball with a more limited passing game. This makes the Jayhawk defensive line very important. Adding D.J. Williams and Marcquis Roberts should give the defense a little more firepower to plug up the holes and limit the Bobcats’ running game. Keep the drives short so that players don’t get worn down and it could be a banner day for the Jayhawks.

On offense, Jeremiah Booker will likely be added to the weapons at receiver. Extra available bodies on the line will help open holes and give the quarterbacks extra time to hit an open receiver. I don’t expect them to score as much as in the first game, but I do expect they’ll have success.

There were only four flags on the Jayhawks in the first game, but two of those four were very frustrating. Getting penalized on the first play of the game for delay of game is just unbelievable. Players had the entire offseason to be prepared for that play. Near the end of the first half, two timeouts were called to get the perfect fourth and one play. Then twelve men on the field move the ball back and a missed field goal followed. I do expect silly penalties like this will be cleaned up going forward.

Prediction: As the week started, the Jayhawks were nine point underdogs. A day later and the Jayhawks were favored by three. When a line moves like that, it is because money was being bet on the Jayhawks. Are the gamblers smart or are biased fans throwing away money? I’m once again going to predict the Jayhawks are going to beat the line. I’ll say Kansas 38 – Ohio 31.

by Sep 9, 2016
KU vs. Rhode Island Preview and Prediction

KU vs. Rhode Island Preview and Prediction

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Jayhawk football fans haven’t had much to celebrate in a long time. The 2015 season was painful as there wasn’t a single win. There hasn’t been a reason to celebrate since November 8, 2014. All of that leads to the first game of the 2016 season against the Rhode Island Rams. Their results over the past few years are as bad as the Jayhawks and they play in the lower FCS subdivision.

What does that mean for the outcome against the Rams? According to the betting line, Kansas is favored by 29 points. Barring something crazy happening, Jayhawk fans should have reason to celebrate when the final whistle blows. In fact, they should have reasons to celebrate throughout the game.

I have six things I’ll be watching:

ONE: Quarterbacks. We still don’t know who will be starting the game. If I had to guess, it will be Ryan Willis. No matter how he plays, I fully expect to see Montell Cozart take snaps before halftime. Should Cozart start, then Willis will also receive first half snaps. The coaches want to see how each of them perform in a real game so they can determine the best option for the rest of the games on the schedule. I also expect Carter Stanley to lead a drive or two so that he can get a taste of college football in case he is needed later in the season.

I hope they are decisive, their throws are accurate, they mix in some runs and they don’t turn it over. If the Air Raid offense is going to succeed, the offense has to move fast and drives must be sustained. Against an overmatched opponent, they need to put up a lot of points to build confidence.

TWO: Offensive Line. If they can’t keep the quarterback protected in this game, it’s gonna be another really long season. Ideally, I don’t want to see a KU quarterback sacked. I want to see the offensive line get a push with holes opened up for the running backs. Not only does each lineman need to do his own job, they need to work together.

THREE: Receivers. I’m confident the running backs will have some run success. It seems more important that they are able to catch the ball in open space. That includes catching balls that aren’t thrown perfectly. Make those tough catches to keep the quarterback confident.

In the Air Raid offense, a number of receivers will be used in the slot and on the edges. The ball needs to be thrown to all areas of the field, inside and out, long and short. It would be great to see a receiver like LaQuvionte Gonzalez have a breakout game. But I’d love to see the catches spread among a number of receivers so the defense can’t be focused on just one weapon.

FOUR: Defensive Line. If the line can’t pressure the offense, it makes a tough day for the entire defense. That is especially true with all of the high powered offenses in the Big 12. We’ve heard about the increased size in the middle and the speed on the edge. Now we need to see the Rams quarterback on the ground a few times and the running game stuffed. If they can’t overpower the Rams, this maybe the only win of the season as the opponents will only get tougher.

FIVE: Edge Defense. Just like with the running backs, I feel comfortable with the defense in the middle of the field if the line is doing their job. I’m most concerned with the corners shutting down the receivers. As Jayhawk fans we are all too familiar with watching the opponent’s receivers dominating the corners. Lock down the receivers in this game and build confidence for the conference games.

SIX: Special Teams. There has been nothing more frustrating than watching the kicking game the past few seasons. The “gimme” extra points weren’t a given. Going for it on fourth down often seemed the better option than trying most any field goal. And given the inept offense in past seasons, the punter became one of the most important players on the team.

Ideally there will be no field goal attempts because the offense gets touchdowns. Yet it might not be the end of the world if there are at least a couple of field goal opportunities that get converted. Kickers need to see the ball go through the uprights! Yes, so do fans!!!

Prediction: The guys in Las Vegas are pretty smart and their predictions are right more often than not. I think the built-up frustration of last season will help the entire team to come out firing in this game. So I’m predicting the Jayhawks will not only win, but cover the 29 point spread. I’ll say Kansas 52 – Rhode Island 13.

by Sep 2, 2016

Predicting the Jayhawks 2013 Non-Conference Football Games

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2013-non-con-logosIt was weird to watch the college football season kick off while the Jayhawks started with a bye. This gave them the opportunity to do a little extra scouting on their upcoming opponents and gave me a little more information to help with my prognostication.

Nobody really seems to know what the Jayhawks will put on the field this season, though I tried to predict their offensive and defensive numbers for the season. Now I’m gonna to make predictions on the outcome of the three non-conference games. There is another bye after these games and I’ll use that week to predict the rest of the season. Hopefully we’ll all know more about the Jayhawks by then.

First up are the University of South Dakota Coyotes. They are an FCS team from the Missouri Valley Conference and their 2012 season was every bit as miserable as the Jayhawks with a 1-10 record. In their first game of 2013, they opened with a 10-7 victory over UC Davis. Of South Dakota’s 286 yards, 195 of them came on the ground. Defensively they held UC Davis to 267 yards. It should be noted that UC Davis is also an FCS team so their offense and defense are not the same as that of a Big XII team, even a team as bad as the Jayhawks last season.

It is important for the Jayhawks to have some success in the passing game early so I expect the offense to lean heavily on Jake Heaps arm early. Once they have success in the air, the running game will take over. This is a game the Jayhawks need to win big to build confidence and I believe they will do just that. I’m going to go with a 42-10 Jayhawk victory.

Rice started the Jayhawks 11-game losing streak with a 25-24 win in the 2nd game last season. In the Owls’ first game of 2013, they played against Texas A&M and put up more than 500 yards of offense. To me, there is at least a small asterisk to those numbers as half of the A&M defensive starters were suspended for the game. Even with that asterisk, this is an offense that can move the ball and score. If there was a negative, their QB McHarque threw two interceptions.

Many Jayhawk fans have circled this game as a win would be a huge confidence boost. Remember, the Jayhawks last won a road game four years ago and that streak needs to be broken. I just don’t have a good feeling about this game. While KU will keep the game close, I have the Owls winning 42-38.

Louisiana Tech last visited Lawrence in the 2nd week of the 2008 season and got shut out 29-0. We need to remember they played a team coming off of a miracle season capped off by an Orange Bowl win. Last season they finished 9-3 including a win in their bowl game. In their first game of 2013, they went to North Carolina State and lost 40-14.

I expect the Jayhawks offense to have good success both in the air and on the ground against the Bulldogs. This could be a breakout game for the defense as they will come out angry after the Rice game and force some turnovers including at least one they will take into the endzone. I’ll take the Jayhawks 45-17 in this one.

If I’m on the mark, the Jayhawks will finish the non-conference season 2-1. Let’s look at the bright side as that would be double the number of wins they had last season. Should they prove me wrong and get a win against Rice, Jayhawk fans will have good reason for optimism after the last three seasons of miserable football.

by Sep 6, 2013

Predictions for the Jayhawk Defense in 2013 Football Season

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Yesterday I posted my prediction for the Jayhawk offense during the 2013 season and today I’ll go over my thoughts on how well the Jayhawks will do in stopping their opponents offense. In the wide open Big XII, this isn’t always easy and the Jayhawks haven’t been very good at it in the past few seasons. First, let’s look at how they’ve done in the past nine seasons.

Season Yards Against Points Against
2004 334.5 21.4
2005 303.2 22.0
2006 378.1 25.5
2007 317.3 16.4
2008 396.7 28.8
2009 383.2 28.4
2010 427.7 34.4
2011 516.4 43.8
2012 481.8 36.1

As you can see from this table, the numbers have been pretty awful the last three seasons which isn’t a surprise given the record of the team. For those looking for a positive, the number of yards surrendered dropped by 35 yards when Charlie Weis and Dave Campo took over. There is also a drop of more than a touchdown per game in points against.

The breakdown of yardage in 2012 was 285.1 through the air and 196 on the ground. Reasons for the porous defense are partly because of the fast-break offenses in the Big XII wearing out the limited number of quality players fielded by the Jayhawks. It also doesn’t help when the offense doesn’t sustain long drives forcing the defense to spend more time on the field.

With a year of experience against the wild offenses of the Big XII, Dave Campo should be able to better gameplan to at least slow them down. There was also an influx of junior college players, many of whom are found on either the first or second team defense. Not only will the Jayhawks put a superior defensive team on the field, they’ll also have capable backups to step in when the starters get tired or injured. And based on yesterday’s prediction, I expect the offense to sustain more long drives.

If we look at the three major pieces of the defense, there is improvement in all three areas. One of the biggest holes in the defense last year was on the front line. Returning players have improved and the new players are pushing hard for minutes. I feel this will put a little more pressure on the quarterbacks and stop the runners a little sooner.

Linebackers are also bigger, faster, more improved and with depth. They will be able to track down the runners and better run with the receivers. Lastly is the defensive backfield that was in a tough position last season. No pressure up front left the backs giving a huge cushion on the line of scrimmage. There was also a talent deficit that left the backs unable to stop the pass. With a new scheme and a strong two deep rotation, this area will likely see the most improvement.

I think the passing game will go from the 285.1 yards a game last season to 260. On the ground, the 196 yards a game will drop to 180. That leads to more than 40 yards less a game. While I do expect a greatly improved defense, it is nearly impossible to true stop the Big XII offenses. Even this slight improvement should make a big difference.

Less yardage should also mean fewer points and I again think there will be a touchdown improvement on average. That means 29 points per game. Of course Jayhawk fans hope the defense will be even better.

What do you think the defense will do this season? Post your predictions or comments on mine!

by Sep 5, 2013

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