KU vs. Ohio Preview and Prediction

KU vs. Ohio Preview and Prediction

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After a long wait, the Jayhawk football team got back in the winning column. Before I get to this week’s game, let’s take a look back at the six things I was watching in the opener against Rhode Island.

Quarterbacks: Overall they did well with only one bad mistake. None of the quarterbacks separated themselves and so we’ll likely continue to see a shuffling between Cozart and Willis. Offensive Line: Two freshmen were among the starting five and the line did a good job. This will get tougher so hopefully they can continue to keep the quarterbacks upright and the backs running forward. Receivers: They did very well and one more weapon should play this week. Defensive Line: They didn’t play as well as I’d like, but two starters were unavailable. I hope we’ll see some improvement this week. Edge Defense: The defensive backs also got off to a good start considering their youth. They need to improve for Big 12 play. Special Teams: Kickoffs and punts went well. Placekicking still has a lot of room for improvement.

I was afraid my prediction for game one might be a little too optimistic and yet both the offense did better (points-wise) than I predicted. As a Jayhawk fan, I can only hope they continue to beat my predictions.

Think back to the Nebraska teams of old and you have a pretty good idea of the type of football you’ll see from Ohio. They may not have the talent from Nebraska teams of old, but they have similar offensive and defensive philosophies. Of course that is probably because their head coach, Frank Solich, is the former Cornhusker coach.

Ohio is going to want to run the ball with a more limited passing game. This makes the Jayhawk defensive line very important. Adding D.J. Williams and Marcquis Roberts should give the defense a little more firepower to plug up the holes and limit the Bobcats’ running game. Keep the drives short so that players don’t get worn down and it could be a banner day for the Jayhawks.

On offense, Jeremiah Booker will likely be added to the weapons at receiver. Extra available bodies on the line will help open holes and give the quarterbacks extra time to hit an open receiver. I don’t expect them to score as much as in the first game, but I do expect they’ll have success.

There were only four flags on the Jayhawks in the first game, but two of those four were very frustrating. Getting penalized on the first play of the game for delay of game is just unbelievable. Players had the entire offseason to be prepared for that play. Near the end of the first half, two timeouts were called to get the perfect fourth and one play. Then twelve men on the field move the ball back and a missed field goal followed. I do expect silly penalties like this will be cleaned up going forward.

Prediction: As the week started, the Jayhawks were nine point underdogs. A day later and the Jayhawks were favored by three. When a line moves like that, it is because money was being bet on the Jayhawks. Are the gamblers smart or are biased fans throwing away money? I’m once again going to predict the Jayhawks are going to beat the line. I’ll say Kansas 38 – Ohio 31.

by Sep 9, 2016
KU vs. Rhode Island Preview and Prediction

KU vs. Rhode Island Preview and Prediction

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Jayhawk football fans haven’t had much to celebrate in a long time. The 2015 season was painful as there wasn’t a single win. There hasn’t been a reason to celebrate since November 8, 2014. All of that leads to the first game of the 2016 season against the Rhode Island Rams. Their results over the past few years are as bad as the Jayhawks and they play in the lower FCS subdivision.

What does that mean for the outcome against the Rams? According to the betting line, Kansas is favored by 29 points. Barring something crazy happening, Jayhawk fans should have reason to celebrate when the final whistle blows. In fact, they should have reasons to celebrate throughout the game.

I have six things I’ll be watching:

ONE: Quarterbacks. We still don’t know who will be starting the game. If I had to guess, it will be Ryan Willis. No matter how he plays, I fully expect to see Montell Cozart take snaps before halftime. Should Cozart start, then Willis will also receive first half snaps. The coaches want to see how each of them perform in a real game so they can determine the best option for the rest of the games on the schedule. I also expect Carter Stanley to lead a drive or two so that he can get a taste of college football in case he is needed later in the season.

I hope they are decisive, their throws are accurate, they mix in some runs and they don’t turn it over. If the Air Raid offense is going to succeed, the offense has to move fast and drives must be sustained. Against an overmatched opponent, they need to put up a lot of points to build confidence.

TWO: Offensive Line. If they can’t keep the quarterback protected in this game, it’s gonna be another really long season. Ideally, I don’t want to see a KU quarterback sacked. I want to see the offensive line get a push with holes opened up for the running backs. Not only does each lineman need to do his own job, they need to work together.

THREE: Receivers. I’m confident the running backs will have some run success. It seems more important that they are able to catch the ball in open space. That includes catching balls that aren’t thrown perfectly. Make those tough catches to keep the quarterback confident.

In the Air Raid offense, a number of receivers will be used in the slot and on the edges. The ball needs to be thrown to all areas of the field, inside and out, long and short. It would be great to see a receiver like LaQuvionte Gonzalez have a breakout game. But I’d love to see the catches spread among a number of receivers so the defense can’t be focused on just one weapon.

FOUR: Defensive Line. If the line can’t pressure the offense, it makes a tough day for the entire defense. That is especially true with all of the high powered offenses in the Big 12. We’ve heard about the increased size in the middle and the speed on the edge. Now we need to see the Rams quarterback on the ground a few times and the running game stuffed. If they can’t overpower the Rams, this maybe the only win of the season as the opponents will only get tougher.

FIVE: Edge Defense. Just like with the running backs, I feel comfortable with the defense in the middle of the field if the line is doing their job. I’m most concerned with the corners shutting down the receivers. As Jayhawk fans we are all too familiar with watching the opponent’s receivers dominating the corners. Lock down the receivers in this game and build confidence for the conference games.

SIX: Special Teams. There has been nothing more frustrating than watching the kicking game the past few seasons. The “gimme” extra points weren’t a given. Going for it on fourth down often seemed the better option than trying most any field goal. And given the inept offense in past seasons, the punter became one of the most important players on the team.

Ideally there will be no field goal attempts because the offense gets touchdowns. Yet it might not be the end of the world if there are at least a couple of field goal opportunities that get converted. Kickers need to see the ball go through the uprights! Yes, so do fans!!!

Prediction: The guys in Las Vegas are pretty smart and their predictions are right more often than not. I think the built-up frustration of last season will help the entire team to come out firing in this game. So I’m predicting the Jayhawks will not only win, but cover the 29 point spread. I’ll say Kansas 52 – Rhode Island 13.

by Sep 2, 2016

Predicting the Jayhawks 2013 Non-Conference Football Games

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2013-non-con-logosIt was weird to watch the college football season kick off while the Jayhawks started with a bye. This gave them the opportunity to do a little extra scouting on their upcoming opponents and gave me a little more information to help with my prognostication.

Nobody really seems to know what the Jayhawks will put on the field this season, though I tried to predict their offensive and defensive numbers for the season. Now I’m gonna to make predictions on the outcome of the three non-conference games. There is another bye after these games and I’ll use that week to predict the rest of the season. Hopefully we’ll all know more about the Jayhawks by then.

First up are the University of South Dakota Coyotes. They are an FCS team from the Missouri Valley Conference and their 2012 season was every bit as miserable as the Jayhawks with a 1-10 record. In their first game of 2013, they opened with a 10-7 victory over UC Davis. Of South Dakota’s 286 yards, 195 of them came on the ground. Defensively they held UC Davis to 267 yards. It should be noted that UC Davis is also an FCS team so their offense and defense are not the same as that of a Big XII team, even a team as bad as the Jayhawks last season.

It is important for the Jayhawks to have some success in the passing game early so I expect the offense to lean heavily on Jake Heaps arm early. Once they have success in the air, the running game will take over. This is a game the Jayhawks need to win big to build confidence and I believe they will do just that. I’m going to go with a 42-10 Jayhawk victory.

Rice started the Jayhawks 11-game losing streak with a 25-24 win in the 2nd game last season. In the Owls’ first game of 2013, they played against Texas A&M and put up more than 500 yards of offense. To me, there is at least a small asterisk to those numbers as half of the A&M defensive starters were suspended for the game. Even with that asterisk, this is an offense that can move the ball and score. If there was a negative, their QB McHarque threw two interceptions.

Many Jayhawk fans have circled this game as a win would be a huge confidence boost. Remember, the Jayhawks last won a road game four years ago and that streak needs to be broken. I just don’t have a good feeling about this game. While KU will keep the game close, I have the Owls winning 42-38.

Louisiana Tech last visited Lawrence in the 2nd week of the 2008 season and got shut out 29-0. We need to remember they played a team coming off of a miracle season capped off by an Orange Bowl win. Last season they finished 9-3 including a win in their bowl game. In their first game of 2013, they went to North Carolina State and lost 40-14.

I expect the Jayhawks offense to have good success both in the air and on the ground against the Bulldogs. This could be a breakout game for the defense as they will come out angry after the Rice game and force some turnovers including at least one they will take into the endzone. I’ll take the Jayhawks 45-17 in this one.

If I’m on the mark, the Jayhawks will finish the non-conference season 2-1. Let’s look at the bright side as that would be double the number of wins they had last season. Should they prove me wrong and get a win against Rice, Jayhawk fans will have good reason for optimism after the last three seasons of miserable football.

by Sep 6, 2013

Predictions for the Jayhawk Defense in 2013 Football Season

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Yesterday I posted my prediction for the Jayhawk offense during the 2013 season and today I’ll go over my thoughts on how well the Jayhawks will do in stopping their opponents offense. In the wide open Big XII, this isn’t always easy and the Jayhawks haven’t been very good at it in the past few seasons. First, let’s look at how they’ve done in the past nine seasons.

Season Yards Against Points Against
2004 334.5 21.4
2005 303.2 22.0
2006 378.1 25.5
2007 317.3 16.4
2008 396.7 28.8
2009 383.2 28.4
2010 427.7 34.4
2011 516.4 43.8
2012 481.8 36.1

As you can see from this table, the numbers have been pretty awful the last three seasons which isn’t a surprise given the record of the team. For those looking for a positive, the number of yards surrendered dropped by 35 yards when Charlie Weis and Dave Campo took over. There is also a drop of more than a touchdown per game in points against.

The breakdown of yardage in 2012 was 285.1 through the air and 196 on the ground. Reasons for the porous defense are partly because of the fast-break offenses in the Big XII wearing out the limited number of quality players fielded by the Jayhawks. It also doesn’t help when the offense doesn’t sustain long drives forcing the defense to spend more time on the field.

With a year of experience against the wild offenses of the Big XII, Dave Campo should be able to better gameplan to at least slow them down. There was also an influx of junior college players, many of whom are found on either the first or second team defense. Not only will the Jayhawks put a superior defensive team on the field, they’ll also have capable backups to step in when the starters get tired or injured. And based on yesterday’s prediction, I expect the offense to sustain more long drives.

If we look at the three major pieces of the defense, there is improvement in all three areas. One of the biggest holes in the defense last year was on the front line. Returning players have improved and the new players are pushing hard for minutes. I feel this will put a little more pressure on the quarterbacks and stop the runners a little sooner.

Linebackers are also bigger, faster, more improved and with depth. They will be able to track down the runners and better run with the receivers. Lastly is the defensive backfield that was in a tough position last season. No pressure up front left the backs giving a huge cushion on the line of scrimmage. There was also a talent deficit that left the backs unable to stop the pass. With a new scheme and a strong two deep rotation, this area will likely see the most improvement.

I think the passing game will go from the 285.1 yards a game last season to 260. On the ground, the 196 yards a game will drop to 180. That leads to more than 40 yards less a game. While I do expect a greatly improved defense, it is nearly impossible to true stop the Big XII offenses. Even this slight improvement should make a big difference.

Less yardage should also mean fewer points and I again think there will be a touchdown improvement on average. That means 29 points per game. Of course Jayhawk fans hope the defense will be even better.

What do you think the defense will do this season? Post your predictions or comments on mine!

by Sep 5, 2013

Predictions for the Jayhawk Offense in 2013 Football Season

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I am going to try and predict the offensive output, both yardage and points, for the 2013 football season. Before I make my prediction, I think it is important to look at the offensive output for the previous nine seasons.

Season Yards For Points For
2004 314.5 23.8
2005 329.7 22.4
2006 374.1 29.0
2007 479.8 42.8
2008 432.4 33.4
2009 422.4 29.4
2010 296.4 17.1
2011 326.8 22.3
2012 360.3 18.2

In looking at this historical data, you can see the number of yards does not directly relate to the number of points scored. But in the seasons where the yardage was much higher, so were the number of points. Some of this differential can come because the defense is scoring points as those don’t add any yardage.

If we break down the yardage from the 2012 season, 148.7 came through the air and 211.7 came on the ground. Fans who suffered through the games know that the passing game was was one of the worst in college football and the running game was above average.

Let’s start by breaking down the running game for the 2013 season. All of the running backs have returned and they’ve added an explosive back from the 2011 season in Darrian Miller. Tony Sims was the workhorse back with an average of 113 yards in the 9 games he played. The power of last season’s running game was that the defense knew KU was not a passing threat and the offense was still able to run the ball with success.

I expect the offense to be more balanced this season and so I see a small decrease in the number of yards on the ground. My expectation is 200 yards rushing a game, with fewer rushing attempts. Having multiple backs sharing the load will mean that all of them can be fresher and therefore more successful. A side benefit is that the inevitable injuries will not kill the running game because of the depth at the position.

Last season’s failure in the air came from a quarterback hearing footsteps from previous injuries, receivers who were unable to get open and a line that was subpar at pass protection. While this year’s linemen don’t have the experience found in the trenches last season, I do expect them to be at least equal in terms of pass protection.

Moving Tony Pierson and Brandon Bourbon to a hybrid position to be utilized much more in the passing game will add two very dangerous targets who can turn a short pass into a long play. Justin McCay will finally see the field after sitting last season and not seeing the field much at Oklahoma. Christian Matthews has been moved away from being a backup quarterback and is practicing full-time as a receiver. Rodriguez Coleman, Tre’ Parmalee and Josh Ford provide additional depth.

Jimmay Mundine at Tight End will be targeted if Coach Charlie Weis is able to open the playbook as he desires. The biggest upgrade should come from the quarterback position as Jake Heaps has had a year to learn the offense and get comfortable with most of the receiving corps. He won’t be worried about previous injuries like Dayne Crist and he definitely has proven he is capable since he holds many BYU freshman passing records.

All of the upgrades in the passing game should show up with a big increase in passing yards. My prediction is 250 yards a game through the air. Combined with my rushing prediction, that will give a total of 450 yards of offense a game compared to 360.3 yards per game last season. Yes, that is a big jump!

More offense should help the offense score more points. Just as important to scoring is having a kicker capable of hitting field goals and Coach Weis had indicated his confidence in Matthew Wyman out to 50 yards and the possibility of Trevor Pardula for longer tries. I’ll predict 31 points per game which is a huge increase from the 18.2 points per game last season.

Tomorrow I’ll lay out my defensive predictions for the season and Friday I’ll predict the outcome of the three non-conference games. Are you as excited for the upcoming football season as me? What are your predictions for the offense in 2013?

by Sep 4, 2013

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